1. The mirror image of August: more cases, but smaller ones
1,666 insolvencies of partnerships and corporations, 9% above the August figure, 13% above September 2025, and 85% above the pre-Covid average: the case count rose noticeably. At the same time, jobs affected in the largest ten percent of insolvent companies fell to around 11,600 — 28% fewer than in August, 44% fewer than in September 2025. Together, the two movements paint a clear picture: September brought more proceedings, but on average markedly smaller companies within them than the month before.
That is the exact reversal of what happened in August, when the case count fell while jobs affected in the largest cases rose. Together, August and September show that the two metrics move independently — case count and average case size are two separate signals that can run with or against each other. For a buyer, that means: a month with more, but on average smaller cases is not a weaker market — it is a market with more throughput and more opportunities, typically at a more manageable due-diligence load per case.
Even at 131% above the pre-pandemic average, the absolute September figure stays high — 11,600 jobs affected in just the largest ten percent of cases is not a small market, only a different one from August.
2. The third quarter: second-highest since 2005, but slightly below the Q2 peak
Across the full third quarter of 2026, the IWH counts 4,880 insolvencies — 2.3% fewer than in Q2, but still the second-highest quarterly figure since 2005. Jobs affected over the quarter total 41,000, 10% fewer than in Q2. The arithmetic checks out against the three individual months: July (1,689, per our July article), August (1,525) and September (1,666) sum to exactly 4,880 — the figures are internally consistent.
Steffen Müller, head of insolvency research at the IWH, frames the development himself: "after the peak in the second quarter, the number of insolvencies has fallen slightly. Insolvency activity nonetheless remains at an exceptionally high level." For buyers the message is clear: the slight quarterly decline is no all-clear — it moves within a level that remains historically exceptional, and the IWH's leading indicators point to continued high numbers in the coming months, with a possible easing at the earliest towards the end of the year.
3. Our live data: what the platform shows today
This edition deliberately does not state an exact September figure from our own database — direct database access was unavailable for this run, and an estimated number about real companies has no place here (see our own operations manual's HARD RULE #0: claims about real businesses must be checkable). Instead, the figures that stood directly on the public /statistiken page on 8 October 2026: 365 new cases in the last 7 days, 1,523 in the last 30 days, 5,016 in the last 12 months.
These figures count only genuine official §9 InsO court notices from German courts (no sale boards such as nexxt-change), each company once, dated by its first notice, and exclude withdrawn or suppressed cases. That is a stricter definition than the one used in our June/July/August articles, so the figures there are not directly comparable to these (see the FAQ below). The continuously updated monthly series with federal-state and sector breakdowns is live on /statistiken.
4. What this means for the coming weeks
More cases at a smaller average size means speed matters more than it did in August. Anyone running a weeks-long review on every single case will miss more opportunities in a month of elevated throughput than in a month of a few large ones. The best window for first contact with the administrator is typically weeks 2 to 6 after the opening order — what that outreach should look like is set out in our guide to contacting administrators.
For smaller cases, a prepared, repeatable review routine pays off more than due diligence tailored to a single case. The groundwork is in the due-diligence checklist and in transfer of undertaking in an asset deal.
And because the IWH continues to expect a high level in the coming months, with a possible easing at the earliest towards year-end, the fourth quarter remains a market with sustained high supply — regardless of whether any single case is large or small.
5. How to find September's buyable cases
Every proceeding counted here is researchable on our platform — with AI-enriched dossiers (register data, Federal Gazette accounts, web presence, administrator contact) and a match score against your buyer profile. Instead of scanning §9 announcements by hand, you see each morning the cases that fit your search profile.
For every case, the Deal Playbook produces a concrete action plan: which assets matter, how the administrator approach should read, which deadlines are running. Whether a proceeding is heading for continuation at all can often be spotted early — the signals are in continuation or shutdown. For the previous month: the August figures.
The September cohort is live — filter by federal state, sector and procedural stage at /unternehmen.
Frequently asked
Where do the figures in this article come from?
The market figures (1,666 insolvencies, +9% versus August 2026, +13% versus September 2025, +85% versus the pre-Covid September average, around 11,600 jobs affected in the largest 10% at −28% versus August, a Q3 total of 4,880 at −2.3% versus Q2) come from the IWH-Insolvenztrend for September 2026, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research on 8 October 2026 (press release 30/2026, iwh-halle.de). The platform figures (365 / 1,523 / 5,016 as of 8 October 2026) come from the continuously updated /statistiken page.
Why don't you cite an exact September company count from your own database, as in previous months' articles?
Because this run had no direct database access and we would rather not estimate a number about real companies that we cannot check. The figures on /statistiken are also defined more strictly than the calculation used in the June/July/August articles: they count only official §9 InsO court notices (no sale boards), each company exactly once, and exclude withdrawn or suppressed cases. The figures there are therefore not directly comparable to the announcement counts in earlier months' articles — for the continuously current, correctly scoped monthly series, /statistiken is the reference.
More cases but fewer jobs affected in the largest ones — does that make the market less interesting for buyers?
No, it simply shifts in the opposite direction from August. More cases mean more opportunities per month; smaller average sizes typically mean a more manageable due-diligence load per case. For buyers who favour speed and throughput over single large deals, a month like this is, if anything, more favourable.
Q3 came in slightly below Q2 — is the insolvency wave over?
No. According to the IWH, the third quarter's 4,880 cases were the second-highest quarterly figure since 2005 — a slight decline from a historic peak remains an exceptionally high level. The IWH continues to expect high numbers in the coming months, with any easing likely only towards the end of the year at the earliest.
Does this article replace legal or tax advice?
No. It contextualises market figures and describes market mechanics. Any specific acquisition out of insolvency requires its own legal and tax review — in particular on transfer of undertaking under § 613a BGB, liability questions, and the structure of the acquisition.
Continue reading
- → Insolvenz-Radar Alternative: Price Comparison and Differences for Buyers
- → 1,525 German company insolvencies in August — fewer cases, but markedly bigger ones
- → Insolvency administrator directories compared: what the free lists leave out
- → Deal One Alternative: Price Comparison and Differences for Insolvency Buyers